It is very tough for economists to predict the business cycle because "The future is inherently uncertain, so these decisions often depend as much on gut feelings as cold acusations" (2 IP). It depends on how much money people are willing to spend and keep the economy flowing. "Every business expansion eventually dies. Only the cause of death changes" (4 IP). They all know a business is going to peek for money but when it is going to crash and fail is unpredictable. There is always popularity in an item but how long it's going to be popular is unknown. Then the economists "vaccinated everyone against whatever killed the last business cycle, they fail to spot the virus that infects the current one" (4 IP).
A recession is when "they conclude there has been 'a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months'" (4 IP). Back then, a depression is what we now call a recession. "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours" Harry Truman said. It only becomes a depression when it lasts more than three years.
A bull market is when share prices are rising and encouraging buying to get the economy back up. When prices are falling and they are encouraging people to sell things, that is a bear market. Both things are trying to get money flowing into the economy. Between 2006 and 2011, house prices dropped 32 precent leaving people paying mortgages that are worth more than their house is worth. In 1973 and 1990, oil prices spiked. In 2001, technology investments crashed.
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